Can More and Better Jobs Help Save Brazil's Forests? Introducing Erysichthon's Curse

In Greek mythology, Erysichthon, the king of Thessaly, cut down a sacred grove of the goddess Demeter. As punishment, he was cursed with an insatiable hunger. He consumed everything that sustained him until nothing was left, not even himself. In a recent paper, my co-author Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho and I introduce the concept of Erysichthon's Curse: a development trap in which economies struggle to create enough more and better jobs while losing natural capital. The story resonates today. The world needs around 800 million additional jobs over the next decade, particularly for young people, while simultaneously approaching environmental tipping points that threaten the natural systems on which our prosperity depends. What if these two challenges are connected? Erysichthon's Curse suggests they are. Growth models that fail to generate more and better jobs can also place increasing pressure on natural capital. Conversely, the cure to the curse is not less growth, but a different pattern of growth—one that creates more and better jobs while safeguarding a livable planet. We explore this idea through the case of Brazil. Brazil is one of the world's great agricultural success stories. Yet its export basket remains dominated by commodities, reflecting relatively weak productivity growth in manufacturing and modern services. At the same time, many Brazilians continue to work in low-productivity and informal jobs despite almost 90 percent of the population already living in urban areas. Brazil is also home to 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest, one of the world's most important ecosystems and a potential global tipping point. Progress has been made. Amazon deforestation has fallen substantially over recent years. Yet around 5,100 km2 of rainforest were still lost in 2025—still too much. The standing Amazon generates ecosystem services worth an estimated US$317 billion every year. It regulates rainfall across South America, stores vast amounts of carbon and harbors unparalleled biodiversity. Losing these services would have consequences far beyond Brazil, affecting climate stability, food security and biodiversity that benefit all of us. How, then, can countries satisfy their hunger for higher living standards without destroying the natural systems on which those living standards ultimately depend? Our paper shows that the answer is not less growth. It is a different composition of growth. Take agricultural productivity. It is well known that producing more food per hectare reduces pressure to clear additional land globally. But our results show that the picture is more nuanced. In agricultural frontier regions such as the Amazon, higher productivity can increase profitability, encouraging farmers to expand production into forests—a phenomenon known as the Jevons effect. Balance matters. When productivity gains are spread more evenly across agriculture—including more mature farming regions where there is little pressure on forests—deforestation falls. More surprisingly, coupling agricultural productivity with higher productivity in manufacturing and other traded sectors reduces deforestation even further in Brazil. This is where jobs come in. Most Brazilians no longer work in agriculture. They depend on manufacturing and services for rising incomes and better opportunities. Our simulations show that productivity growth in these sectors creates more and better jobs while reducing incentives to expand agriculture into forests. The result is a genuine win-win. Breaking Erysichthon's Curse does not require sacrificing development. It requires a growth model that satisfies society's hunger for prosperity through productivity and structural transformation rather than continued pressure on natural ecosystems. In Brazil, investments in urban productivity—better transport, digital infrastructure, reliable electricity, skills and a stronger business environment—not only create jobs, but also reduce deforestation: Figure 1 shows how closely Brazilian total factor productivity and deforestation in Brazil’s Amazonian states move in tandem. Because Brazil's electricity system is already largely renewable, they also help reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Figure 1: Brazilian total factor productivity (inverted) and deforestation in its Amazonian states This is where the World Bank's Jobs and Livable Planet agendas intersect. Brazil is only one example. Could Erysichthon's Curse also help explain why deforestation, ecosystem loss, and tipping points on other parts of the world? It is a question we hope to explore in future research.