DR Congo: Ebola outbreak could push nearly one million more people into poverty and cost Africa billions

Attachments • Download Report (PDF | 2.74 MB) Ebola Outbreak Could Push Nearly One Million More People into Poverty and Cost Africa Billions, warns UN Development Programme New UNDP analysis shows Ebola extends beyond a health emergency. It is also a development and economic crisis triggering severe socioeconomic shocks, particularly for women NEW YORK/KINSHASA, 30 June 2026— A new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) assessment warns that the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is sparking a far-reaching socioeconomic crisis which could push 985,000 more people into poverty, with women disproportionately suffering the economic and health fallout. The Ebola crisis also risks eliminating tens of thousands of jobs, disrupting education and healthcare services, and costing African economies up to US$ 3.6 billion if broader regional and global shocks intensify. The report, Rapid Socioeconomic Assessment of Ebola Outbreak in the DRC, warns that the current outbreak of the Bundibugyo Ebolavirus is functioning as a highly regressive poverty shock in the DRC and across neighbouring countries, including Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan. While the immediate public health threat is severe and requires containment measures such as quarantines, some of the broader restrictions on travel and trade are inadvertently devastating local economies and informal livelihoods. "Ebola does not stop at the hospital gate," said Ahunna Eziakonwa, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Africa. “It affects livelihoods, education, food security, trade, public finances and trust. If we treat this Ebola outbreak solely as a health challenge, we risk missing the much larger development emergency unfolding around it." The analysis shows that the economic damage extends well beyond those infected with the disease, disproportionately harming the most vulnerable populations, who lack the financial buffers to weather the disruption. Even under a baseline scenario where the virus is successfully contained in the DRC and Uganda, the economic damage remains severe, with the DRC projected to see real GDP losses exceeding US$ 1 billion and the loss of 55,000 jobs. Trade disruptions, border restrictions, transport delays, declining consumer confidence and interruptions to informal markets could reduce continental GDP by US$ 2.37 billion, even if transmission remains largely contained. The poorest 20 percent of households are expected to face a 1.76 percent contraction in daily consumption, a loss that erases fragile development gains and threatens to create a long-term poverty crisis. This poverty shock is also heavily gendered. The assessment outlines how women face a compounding crisis due to their societal roles and economic positions. As women dominate the informal cross-border trade sector, restrictions have a disproportionate impact on their ability to earn an income. Women also constitute the majority of frontline health workers and often also serve as primary caregivers at home, which places them at heightened risk of direct virus exposure. The diversion of healthcare resources toward the Ebola response also risks triggering a secondary crisis. The report projects that disrupted medical services could result in up to 2,520 excess infant deaths in the DRC from non-Ebola causes. To mitigate this devastating socioeconomic impact, the UNDP assessment proposes a multi-layered, gender-responsive policy framework: • Deploying Targeted Support: Implementing direct cash transfers and consumption subsidies specifically targeted at the most vulnerable populations, especially female-headed households. • Implementing "Smart" Borders: Shifting from blanket border closures to targeted screening protocols, coupled with community-based protection systems, to allow women in informal trade to sustain their economic activities safely. • Ring-fencing Social Spending: Establishing emergency financing mechanisms to ensure maternal, reproductive, and infant healthcare services remain fully operational alongside the Ebola response. UNDP is urging governments, development partners and international financial institutions to move beyond traditional outbreak response models and invest simultaneously in health systems, social protection, livelihoods and economic resilience. Full report can be downloaded here. Note to editors: The assessment follows the World Health Organization’s 17 May declaration of the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak, centered in eastern DRC, is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola virus, for which there is currently no licensed vaccine or approved treatment. Media Contacts: • Gaby Goldman I Crisis Communications Lead I gabriela.goldman@undp.org I +1-917-2887900 • Eve Sabbah I Strategic Communication Specialist, Regional Bureau for Africa I eve.sabbagh@undp.org I +1-484-904-5730