From loss to resilience in Nigeria: turning a growing agricultural challenge into action

Nigeria is Africa's largest agricultural economy, accounting for a quarter of national GDP and employing over one third of the labor force. Its vast agro-ecological diversity supports a wide range of staple crops, from cassava and yam in the south to maize and cowpea in the north. Yet beneath aggregate production figures lies a growing and under-recognized challenge: while total crop failures have remained relatively stable, partial crop losses (harvests damaged or reduced but not destroyed) have more than tripled over the past five years. Driven by a combination of climate shocks, environmental stress, and escalating conflict and insecurity, these losses are systemic and largely invisible to conventional monitoring systems that track production volumes rather than loss rates. The implications for food security, rural incomes, and agricultural transformation in the country and beyond are significant. Measuring crop losses using national data Using Nigeria's General Household Survey–Panel (LSMS, World Bank’s flagship household survey program) for the 2018/19 and 2023/24 seasons, new analysis assesses losses at plot and household levels for both field/seasonal crops (maize, yam, cowpea) and permanent/tree crops (cocoa, palm oil, fruit trees). Two findings stand out: 1. Partial losses increased from roughly 6% to over 20% of plots, while total losses held steady 2. Conflict-related factors have become far more prominent alongside persistent climate risks. Climate shocks remain dominant, but conflict is catching up Weather and environmental factors such as flooding, excessive rainfall, and related shocks remain the single largest contributor to crop losses nationwide. They accounted for more than one-third of total losses in both seasons and nearly two-thirds of partial losses in 2023/24, with field/seasonal crops bearing the brunt due to their direct exposure to rainfall variability. Between the two seasons, conflict's contribution to total crop losses nearly doubled, reaching roughly one-fifth of national losses by 2023/24. In the northeast, northwest, and parts of the northcentral region, insecurity now rivals climate as a driver of production loss. This shift is particularly consequential. Unlike weather shocks, which primarily affect yields, conflict disrupts the entire agricultural system. Farmers lose access to land, labor, inputs, and markets, and in the most affected areas, abandon farms altogether. Figure 1. Crop category-wise reasons for plot-level loss (2018/19 & 2023/24) Strong regional divergence in loss patterns National averages obscure stark regional differences. In 2018/19, the south-south zone recorded the highest total crop losses (13.1% of plots), driven largely by weather and environmental shocks, while losses were lowest in the northcentral (4.3%) and northeast (4.6%). By 2023/24, the southwest (11.9%) had joined the south-south (12.8%) among the hardest-hit zones, with insecurity, land transfers, and farm abandonment playing an increasing role. Partial losses reveal an even more striking spatial pattern. The northeast stands out: partial losses surged to over 40% of plots in 2023/24, driven overwhelmingly by weather shocks. The south-south and southwest also saw large increases, reflecting a combination of climate stress and livelihood disruption. By contrast, the northwest and southeast recorded lower and more stable loss shares despite being major producers of cowpea and yam/cassava, suggesting that risk exposure is shaped by local conditions, security dynamics, and adaptive capacity, not crop choice alone. Field crops face growing vulnerability Historically, tree and permanent crops experienced higher absolute losses than field crops. But between the two seasons, field-crop losses doubled while tree-crop losses declined slightly, nearly closing the gap. Weather drove much of the increase in field-crop losses, while conflict and pests weighed on both categories, signaling growing vulnerability in Nigeria's staple food systems, particularly for maize and cowpea. Figure 2. Share of plot-level loss by crop category A rise in unharvested areas A further warning sign is the increase in planted areas that go entirely unharvested. Nationally, this share rose markedly between the two seasons, with the sharpest increases in the northeast and south-south. In the northeast alone, unharvested area jumped from about 7% to nearly 27%, reflecting the combined toll of climate shocks and insecurity. Beans and cowpea plots had the highest unharvested shares, followed by cassava and maize. Yam was the only major crop for which the unharvested share declined, likely owing to its broader geographic spread and shorter growing cycle. Policy implications: making loss prevention a priority The evidence is clear: reducing production losses needs to become a central pillar of Nigeria's agricultural policy agenda. Three priorities stand out. 1. Climate resilience investments, including drainage, flood control, and climate-smart agronomic practices are critical, particularly for field/seasonal crops in flood-prone zones. With the increasing incidence of extreme weather events, the need for these investments will only grow over time. 2. Better alignment between interventions and approaches. The growing role of conflict calls for better coordination/harmonization between agricultural policies and security-informed area-based approaches, especially in the northeast and northwest. In conflict affected regions, aligning input delivery, extension services, and livelihood support with local security conditions can help ensure farmers’ access to land and continue production. Such integrated approaches are critical to stabilize agricultural activity and reducing losses in vulnerable areas. 3. Stronger on-farm risk management systems. The dominance of partial crop losses stresses the need for expanding access to climate information, climate resilient seeds, pest management practices, and extension services. These can help farmers be better protected against and resilient to shocks. Furthermore, improving security coordination and conflict mitigation in vulnerable farming areas will be critical to stabilizing production and protecting rural livelihoods. Without concerted efforts, crop losses risk eroding the gains from decades of agricultural expansion, undermining food availability, and deepening rural vulnerability. Nigeria’s challenge is no longer only how much it produces, but how much of what it produces actually makes it to harvest and, ultimately, to consumers.