External Evaluation Partner for the Baseline Study

Country: Kenya Organization: Aga Khan Foundation Closing date: 10 Aug 2026 TERMS OF REFERENCES (TORs) – For engaging an External Evaluation Partner for the Baseline Study For ‘Hatua-Kwa-Hatua – Mlezi na Mwana’ Project Project Duration: 2026–2029 (36 Months) Baseline Study Duration: 12 Weeks Location: Coast Region (Kilifi, Kwale, Mombasa) Type: Individual Consultant / Firm 1. Opportunity Madrasa Early Childhood Programme–Kenya (MECP-K), invites applications from qualified individual consultants or evaluation firms to serve as the External Evaluation and learning Partner for the Baseline Study of MECP-K’s ‘Hatua kwa Hatua – Mlezi na Mwana’ Project (2026–2029). This assignment aims at a unique and focused opportunity for MECP-K to collect, analyze and document high-level, policy-relevant information reflecting the current status and evidence to inform quality early childhood development (ECD) programming in select Coastal Counties-Kenya. The baseline findings will support MECP-K to establish robust benchmark indicators that will guide innovative implementation, adaptive management, accountability, and future impact evaluation. Additionally, the baseline findings will facilitate target setting for all indicators to allow for objective and realistic project outcomes. The selected evaluator and learning partner will work closely with MECP-K and the Technical Reference Group (TRG) to ensure methodological rigor, ethical integrity, and documentation of relevant evidence that is both technically sound and practically meaningful for programme improvement and policy engagement. 2. Background and Context MECP-K is implementing the ‘Hatua kwa Hatua–Mlezi na Mwana’ project across Kilifi, Kwale, and Mombasa counties in Kenya’s Coast Region. This 36-month initiative (2026–2029) aims to strengthen early childhood development systems through three interlinked outcomes: • SO#1: Empowering Preschool Teachers: 300 Preschool teachers are empowered to deliver high-quality, gender responsive, contextually relevant and needs-based early years education through targeted Teacher Professional Development (TPD) programmes. • SO#2: Supporting Inclusive Community-based Childcare Centres (CBCCs): 30 Community Based ChildCare Centres (CBCCs) are established and supported to provide quality inclusive community-based childcare services for children 4-6. This will involve training caregivers working in the CBCCs to strengthen their capacity to offer inclusive, contextually relevant, play-based support for children below 4. Further, an additional 100 women from the local communities will be engaged to become childcare service providers thus, enhancing economic opportunities for them as well as increasing access to affordable, quality childcare services at community level. • S0#3: Facilitate System and Policy Strengthening: Advanced ECD ecosystems through Policy and Budget analysis, share findings in dissemination forums and critical reflection sessions with the county governments, aimed at increasing county prioritisation and budget allocations for ECD. This will also entail community and the Graduate Association (GA0 to enhance public participation and demand for quality ECD services. MECP-K seeks to establish a rigorous baseline to generate pre-intervention benchmark data across the above outcome areas and to support future impact evaluation. 3. Purpose of the Baseline Study The baseline study will: • Establish reliable pre-intervention benchmark data on teacher capacity, child development outcomes, CBCC quality, women’s economic empowerment, and ECD systems strengthening. • Construct a statistically robust comparison group using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) from an eligible pool of 200–300 schools. • Generate baseline values for all indicators in the project LogFrame and Theory of Change. • Enable future causal impact evaluation using a PSM-based Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DiD) approach. • Provide actionable insights on implementation context, capacity gaps, and enabling factors. • Inform adaptive programme management, policy engagement, and potential scaling strategies. 4. Key Research Questions The study will address the following: • Teacher Capacity: What is the current level of teacher capacity as measured by BEQI scores, and how does it vary by qualifications, experience, and context? • Child Development Outcomes: What is baseline IDELA scores for children aged 4–6, and what demographic disparities exist? • CBCC Quality and Caregiver Practices: What is the current quality and functionality of CBCCs as assesed by MECXP-K CBCC Tool, and what capacity gaps exist among caregivers? • Women’s Economic Empowerment: What is the level of women’s participation in childcare-related economic activities, and what barriers and enablers exist? • ECD Systems and Policy Environment: What is the status of county-level ECD policy implementation, investment, and coordination mechanisms? 5. Study design and Methodology 5.1 Overall Design The study will adopt a MIXED-METHODS QUASI-EXPERIEMNTAL design, structured across three integrated strands: Strand /Design / Sample /Purpose • Strand 1 / Quasi-experimental (PSM-DiD) / 130 schools (100 treatment, 30 comparison) / Causal inference on teacher and child outcomes • Strand 2 / Cross-sectional descriptive / 30 CBCCs, 200 women, 20–30 KIIs / System-wide and economic baseline • Strand 3 / Qualitative inquiry / 15 FGDs, 30 KIIs, 40 observations / Contextual explanation and triangulation 5.2 Comparison Group Construction The evaluator will design and implement a rigorous Propensity Score Matching (PSM) strategy to construct a statistically comparable comparison group. This will include: • Selection and justification of matching covariates in consultation with MECP-K • Application of appropriate matching algorithms (e.g., nearest neighbour, kernel matching) • Balance diagnostics and covariate equivalence testing • Sensitivity analysis to assess robustness • Full documentation of assumptions and limitations The final matching strategy will be subject to approval by MECP-K and the Technical Reference Group prior to implementation. 5.3 Data Collection and Tools Data will be collected using validated instruments including BEQI, IDELA, structured surveys, FGDs, KIIs, and observation checklists. Digital data collection tools (KoboToolbox/ODK) will be used. 5.4 Data Analysis • Quantitative analysis will be conducted using Stata or R. • Descriptive and inferential statistics will be used, with disaggregation by gender, age, county, and school type. • Qualitative data will be transcribed, translated where necessary, and analysed using thematic analysis. • Mixed-methods triangulation will be used to integrate findings across strands. 5.5 Quality Assurance Framework The External Evaluation and learning Partner shall implement a comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) system to ensure validity, reliability, and credibility of all data and findings. The QA framework will include: (a) Field Quality Assurance • Deployment of trained field supervisors independent from enumerators. • Daily review of submitted data for completeness, consistency, and logical errors. • Real-time monitoring of fieldwork using digital dashboards (KoboToolbox/ODK). • Back-checks of at least 10–15% of sampled respondents. • Random spot checks by senior evaluation staff. (b) Instrument Fidelity and Standardization • Strict adherence to BEQI and IDELA administration protocols. • Inter-rater reliability testing during training and pilot phases. • Standardization of scoring procedures across enumerators and sites. 6. Scope of Work The External Evaluator and Learning Partner will undertake the following: 6.1 Inception Phase (Weeks 1–2) • Review all project documents, tools, and Log Frame etc • Submit an inception report detailing methodology, sampling, and fieldwork plan. • Finalize PSM covariates and sampling frames with MECP-K. • Participate in a virtual meeting with MECP-K to share the inception findings and implementation plan. 6.2 Enumerator Training and Piloting (Week 3–4) • Conduct enumerator training programme. • Ensure inter-rater reliability for BEQI and IDELA tools. • Conduct pilot testing in non-sample sites. • Refine instruments based on pilot findings. 6.3 Field Data Collection (Weeks 5–8) • Supervise data collection across all study sites. • Ensure real-time quality monitoring using digital systems. • Conduct weekly field supervision and quality assurance. • Ensure strict adherence to ethical protocols. 6.4 Data Management and Analysis (Weeks 9–11) • Clean and validate datasets. • Conduct statistical and thematic analysis. • Produce integrated mixed-methods findings. • Generate matched comparison group outputs. 6.5 Reporting and Dissemination (Weeks 11–12) • Produce draft and final baseline reports. • Present findings to MECP-K and TRG. • Incorporate feedback and finalize report. • Lead dissemination workshop. 7. Deliverables: # Deliverable / Timeline / Format 1 Inception Report / Week 2 / Word + Presentation 2 PSM Analysis Report / Week 3 / Word + Stata outputs 3 Enumerator Training Report / Week 4 / Word 4 Clean Dataset + Codebook / Week 10 / Stata + Excel 5 Qualitative Analysis Report / Week 10 / Word 6 Draft Baseline Report / Week 11 / Word 7 Final Baseline Report / Week 12 / Word + PDF 8 Dissemination Presentation / Week 12 PowerPoint The final report will include Executive Summary, Background, Methodology, Findings by Research Question, Conclusions, Recommendations, Limitations, and Annexes. 8. Ethical Requirements The evaluator shall: • Lead the ethical and regulatory approval process for the study, including obtaining ethical approval and supporting compliance with NACOSTI requirements. • Ensure informed consent and assent for all respondents. • Adhere to MECP-K child safeguarding policies. • Ensure confidentiality and anonymization of all data. • Comply with the Kenya Data Protection Act (2019). 9. Evaluation Quality Standards The assignment will adhere to OECD-DAC evaluation criteria: • Relevance • Efficiency • Effectiveness • Impact • Sustainability The evaluator must demonstrate: • Methodological rigor • Independence • Transparency • Ethical integrity • Credible evidence generation • Stakeholder engagement 10. Supervision and Support The External Evaluation Partner will report to the MECP-K Programme Director, who holds overall accountability for the assignment. Day-to-day technical supervision, coordination, and review of deliverables will be provided by MECP-K - Monitoring and Evaluation Officer. MECP-K will provide: • Study protocol and tools • Sampling frame and administrative data • Introductory letters to counties and institutions • Logistics support for training venues • Field transport support (vehicles and fuel) A Technical Reference Group (TRG) will review key deliverables and endorse for subsequent payment. 11. Payment Schedule: The compensation for this consultancy will be negotiated based on the candidate's qualifications, experience, and the intricacy of the evaluation process. Milestone / Timing / % Payment Contract signing & mobilisation / Week 1 / 20% Approved Inception + PSM Report / Week 3 / 20% Completion of Fieldwork / Week 9 / 30% Final Report & Dataset Approval / Week 12 / 30% 12. Qualifications For Individual Consultants • Master’s degree (PhD preferred) in Education, Economics, Statistics, Development Studies, or related field. • Minimum 10 years’ experience in evaluation and applied research. • Strong expertise in quasi-experimental designs (PSM, DiD). • Proficiency in Stata or R. • Experience with BEQI, IDELA, or similar ECD tools. • Experience in qualitative research and mixed-methods analysis. • Prior ECD experience in sub-Saharan Africa. • Strong report writing and analytical skills. For Firms • Registered organization with demonstrated evaluation experience. • Core team must include: Lead Evaluator Quantitative Analyst Qualitative Researcher Field Supervisors with Coast region experience • Proven track record with international NGOs or donors. • Capacity to manage multi-county field operations. 13. Independence and Conflict of Interest The evaluator must be fully independent of MECP-K and the Hatua kwa Hatua project. Any actual or perceived conflict of interest must be disclosed. Individuals or firms involved in project design or implementation are ineligible. 14. Data Ownership and Intellectual Property All data, datasets, transcripts, analysis files, tools, and reports generated under this assignment shall remain the exclusive property of MECP-K. The evaluator shall not publish, disseminate, reproduce, present, or otherwise use any datasets, photographs, transcripts, audio recordings, analytical outputs, or reports generated through this assignment without prior written authorization from MECP-K. All intellectual property developed during the assignment shall remain the exclusive property of MECP-K. The evaluator shall submit: • Clean datasets • Codebooks • Analysis syntax/scripts • Transcripts and qualitative coding frameworks • All tools and metadata How to apply Qualified and interested parties are asked to submit the following: 1. Cover letter including the names and contact information of two previous clients who can be contacted regarding relevant experience. Consultants are also expected to disclose any conflict of interest related to this mandate with AKF/MECP-K. 2. Detailed technical proposal of not more than 15 pages clearly demonstrating a thorough understanding of this request for proposals and including the following: • Description of mixed-methods study approach and methodology, including preliminary sampling strategy, data collection, data management and data analysis and ethical standards • Demonstrated previous experience in mixed methods and other qualifications outlined in this TOR • Team composition and level of effort of each proposed team member 3. A financial proposal (KES) with a detailed breakdown of costs for the study (taking into account an additional 5% VAT) 4. CVs of all proposed team members outlining relevant experience (annexed to technical proposal) 5. A copy of a previous report of similar work undertaken on: a) baseline study; OR b) endline study 6. Copy of legal registration (for registered firms) Applications must be received by MECP-K no later than Monday, 10th August 2026 at 5pm EAT through the email address: admin.mecpk@akdn.org along with ‘APPLICATION FOR EXTERNAL EVALUATOR – Hatua Kwa Hatua’ in the subject line. Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted. Evaluation Criteria Candidates will be evaluated based on their qualifications, previous relevant experience, sample work, and the proposed approach to conducting a robust mixed-methods evaluation. CRITERIA / MAXIMUM SCORE Technical Component Demonstrated experience in conducting and coordinating similar studies / 25 Education and Technical Experience of Team / 20 Proposed Methodology and Approach / 30 Total Technical Component = 75 Financial Component Realistic and appropriate costs for proposed work /15 All relevant costs included to carry out proposed work / 10 Total Financial Component = 25 The successful service provider is expected to duly comply with MECP-K contractual guidelines, National and international best practices in conducting programme evaluations throughout the period of engagement with MECP-K. MECP-K reserves the right to cancel or modify this process at any stage without obligation. MECP-K is an equal opportunity employer and is committed to Safeguarding and promoting the welfare of children and vulnerable adults and expects all staff and partners to share this commitment. MECP-K is an affiliate of the Aga Khan Foundation; an agency of the Aga Khan Development Network (www.akdn.org)