Earth observation for displacement forecasting

Organization: Danish Refugee Council Closing date: 2 Sep 2026 1. Who is the Danish Refugee Council? Founded in 1956, the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a leading international NGO and one of the few with a specific expertise in forced displacement. Active in 40 countries with 9,000 employees and supported by 7,500 volunteers, DRC protects, advocates, and builds sustainable futures for refugees and other displacement affected people and communities. DRC works during displacement at all stages: In the acute crisis, in displacement, when settling and integrating in a new place, or upon return. DRC provides protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance; supports displaced persons in becoming self-reliant and included into hosting societies; and works with civil society and responsible authorities to promote protection of rights and peaceful coexistence. 2. Purpose of the consultancy The Danish Refugee Council Innovation, Data and Analysis Unit seeks proposals from organizations to assess the potential of using earth observation for displacement nowcasting and forecasting and provide the necessary tool/method/guidance to build the capacity internally in DRC to process earth observation data. 3. Background Since 2021, DRC has been developing displacement forecasting models to predict short-term (3 months) displacement at the sub-national level. The forecasts are integrated into anticipatory action mechanisms, whereby forecasts above pre-defined threshold can lead to various pre-emptive actions being taken to prevent displacement or mitigate its impacts. The models are built on open-source data, and a key determinant of the model performance is the availability of the data. For both displacement data as well as data on the drivers of displacement, the availability and timeliness vary significantly from country to country. 4. Objective of the consultancy The purpose of this consultancy is therefore to • Explore the utility of earth observation data to fill spatial and temporal gaps in sub-national displacement data, including timelier estimates of displacement between official reporting cycles • Explore the utility of earth observation data to enhance accuracy of forecasting model by providing additional inputs/indicators of drivers of displacement • Develop a guidance/method/tool to enable DRC to integrate earth observation data into displacement forecasting models going forward 5. Scope of work and Methodology The organization will be required to prepare a detailed methodology and work plan indicating how the objectives of the project will be achieved, and the support required from DRC. The main tasks related to achieving the above-mentioned objectives are: Review relevant documentation on DRC displacement forecasting, existing data and data gaps • Map out existing relevant use of earth observation and determine specific focus areas that could add most value for DRC displacement forecasting work • Generate earth observation data in the identified focus areas and evaluate the contribution to the accuracy of the forecasting models in collaboration with DRC data scientists • Develop a method/tool/guidance that enables DRC data scientists to extract, analyse and store earth observation data going forward • Develop a final report with an overview of the approach, findings and recommendations for further advancement of earth observation for displacement 6. Deliverables The Consultant will submit the following deliverables as mentioned below: Phase 1 – Review Expected deliverables: Inception Indicative tasks: • Kick-off workshop • Review DRC approach to forecasting • Map existing relevant use of earth observation Maximum timeframe: 5 working days Phase 2 – Testing Expected deliverables: Earth observation data set Indicative tasks: • Working meetings, discussions • Data generation • Working session with DRC data scientists to test and evaluate value of EO data Maximum timeframe: 20 working days Phase 3 – Finalization Expected deliverables: Guidance, Final report Indicative tasks: • Prepare first draft of guidance note, including code samples • Provide final guidance note • Provide short final report outlining key findings and recommendations from the work Maximum timeframe: 15 working days The Consultant will provide the documentation via email. 7. Duration, timeline, and payment The total expected duration to complete the assignment will be no more than 40 working days. The consultant shall be prepared to complete the assignment no later than December 31, 2026. 8. Eligibility, qualification, and experience required Essential: • Experience with processing, analysing and generating insights from earth observation data • Demonstrate knowledge of data engineering, databases and the skills to produce the relevant outputs • Realization of similar projects for other organizations • Skills to produce guidance for reproduction. Desirable: • Understanding of displacement and fragile contexts • Understanding and experience working with humanitarian data • Experience with forecasting models • Eligibility: The organization is a registered legal entity in its country of incorporation • Experience: A minimum of 3 years of proven delivery of services related to earth observation data. • Skills and knowledge: Working collaboratively and in iterative fashion with clients Strong communication and project management skills Knowledge of earth observation data and platforms and use cases in humanitarian sector • Language requirements: Written and spoken fluency in English 9. Technical supervision The selected consultant will work under the supervision of: • Senior Analyst • Data science lead 10. Location and support Remote - The Consultant will provide her/his own computer and mobile telephone 11. Travel No travel is expected How to apply For detailed instructions on submitting a bid please download and review the Request for Proposal file via the following link: Earth observation for displacement forecasting Consultancy | Danish Refugee Council