Somalia: DRC analysis forecasts three million displaced in East Africa in worst-case scenario El Niño flooding

Somalia, Kenya account for largest share of likely displacements Nairobi, 25 August 2026 – A powerful El Niño weather event is expected to supercharge annual flooding during rainy season in East Africa beginning in October and force up to three million people to flee by the end of year in the worst-case scenario, according to modeling by the Danish Refugee Council. The report, El Niño Through a Displacement Lens: Mobility Outlook in East Africa, outlines three scenarios – ranging from the least to the most severe – and potential displacements in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda, caused by floods destroying homes, livelihoods, and community support networks. The scenarios are based on a model that analyzes forecast rainfall with physical flood exposure, seasonal patterns, river-system information and past displacement. Scenarios will be updated as new data and forecasts become available. El Niño is a recurring weather event. Above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean point to a record Super El Niño continuing into 2027, resulting in floods, droughts, and frequent storms, according to scientists. For poorer nations, it will mean crop failures, soaring food prices, and acute hunger. Refugees and internally displaced families, who already have the fewest resources to withstand climate shocks, face the greatest risk. “In Beledweyne, I met families still rebuilding after the devastating 2023 El Niño floods. Now they are watching the river rise again, wondering whether they will be forced to flee for a second time. This is the human cost of repeated climate shocks: people are not simply losing homes and livelihoods; they are being forced to rebuild their lives again and again. We know the risk is coming. The choice is whether we act before the river breaks its banks, or respond only after people have lost everything once more,” said James Curtis, DRC Executive Director East Africa and Great Lakes, following a recent visit to Beledweyne, Somalia. Flood-related displacement projections for Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda range from 750,000 (less severe) to three million (most severe), potentially surpassing the 2023 floods that displaced over two million people across the region. In the worst-case scenario, Somalia (60 percent) and Kenya (33 percent) would account for most displacements. Traditional humanitarian funding predominantly arrives long after floodwaters peak, and destruction has already taken hold. Early and flexible funding would allow DRC to act on these forecasts before communities are displaced and humanitarian needs escalate. As an operational international NGO supporting displaced people, DRC integrates El Niño risk assessments with protection, water, sanitation, shelter, and conflict-sensitivity analysis. "By pairing multi-hazard modeling with our frontline reach across East Africa, we can save lives through early warning alerts, deploying cash, protecting water infrastructure, and pre-positioning shelter kits before floodwaters isolate vulnerable communities." While drought-related displacement is not included in this analysis, DRC activated its drought anticipatory action system in alignment with Ethiopia’s National Drought Anticipatory Action Framework in the Afar region. DRC is supporting 700 households (approximately 4,400 people) with livestock support, animal health services, water and sanitation assistance, and dignity kits before drought conditions peak. In the Karamoja cluster in Kenya and Uganda, DRC is acting on data showing a heightened risk of tensions among communities and potential resource-based conflict driven by evolving drought conditions. Over the coming month, DRC will provide cash assistance to 1,228 households (approximately 7,378 individuals) while implementing cross-border peacebuilding activities reaching 7,030 people, including community dialogue, mobile peace monitors and safe-passage agreements to reduce conflict risks as herds move. While the report focuses on flood related displacement in East Africa, DRC’s wider El Nino preparedness exercise has identified risks across multiple regions. DRC is seeking 4.3M EUR globally to protect 240,000 people thought anticipatory action ahead of peak El Nino impacts, alongside 8.6M EUR to enable rapid emergency response where the impacts exceed countries' capacity to cope. DRC is calling on donors, governments and partners to: • Integrate refugees, IDPs, and host communities into national disaster plans and early-warning systems before crisis strikes. • Allocate financing for anticipatory action and release when danger is certain and imminent. Globally, DRC needs 4.3M EUR to protect 240,000 people ahead of peak El Niño shocks, and a further 8.6M EUR for emergency response. • Invest now in protecting lives, livelihoods, and public systems today to strengthen resilience and prevent recurring crises tomorrow. AVAILABLE FOR INTERVIEWS: James Curtis, DRC Executive Director for East Africa and Great Lakes; recently returned from Somalia Anna Lena Huhn, DRC Global Lead on Anticipatory Action Alexander Kjærum, DRC Senior Analyst DRC MEDIA CONTACTS: International media: Affan Chowdhry, affan.chowdhry@drc.ngo +447918588379 Danish media: press@drc.ngo MULTIMEDIA: Photos from previous El Niño floods available here.