World: Forecasts indicate a nearly 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027

Attachments • Download Report (PDF | 937.08 KB) OVERVIEW El Niño is firmly established and is forecast to reach very strong intensity. WMO forecasts indicate a nearly 100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, with the event expected to strengthen further and peak towards the end of 2026. Its effects may lag and persist beyond the peak. A very strong El Niño is likely to bring major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risk of drought, flooding, extreme heat and other weather and climate hazards. These effects will not be felt everywhere at the same time or in the same way. Their severity will depend on where the climate signal coincides with agricultural and livelihood calendars, existing humanitarian needs and people's ability to cope. WMO cautions that the strength of the global event does not translate directly into the scale of impacts in any individual country or region. El Niño is also occurring against the backdrop of long-term climate warming. The emerging risks must be understood alongside conflict, displacement, high food insecurity and high food prices, malnutrition, disease outbreaks, economic pressures and overstretched essential services. These conditions have not improved since the June update. In many places, repeated shocks have depleted household assets, increased debt and weakened the coping mechanisms that people would ordinarily rely on when drought, floods or high prices affect their livelihoods. WFP estimates suggest that up to 50 million people globally could be affected over the next six to nine months, indicating the potential scale of the humanitarian consequences. Disclaimer UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit https://www.unocha.org/.