World: El Niño, shipping disruptions and food aid funding cuts collide to deepen dire global hunger crisis

• Conflict is disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea ports and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, driving up the cost of moving food, fuel and fertilizer just as El Niño peaks. • Current IRC modelling shows Somalia faces up to 2.6 million people at immediate risk of catastrophic flooding if El Niño combines with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole as currently projected, while poor rains could push an additional 700,000 people in El Sa • Ahead of climate week, the IRC is calling on donors to prioritize anticipatory action funding to scale-up in countries where the IRC already has forecasts signaling imminent floods or drought—Guatemala, El Salvador, Somalia and Kenya—before El Niño peaks New York, New York, September 18, 2026 — As El Niño, projected to be one of the strongest in recent history, nears its peak and conflict-disrupted shipping continues to push up the cost of food, fuel and fertilizer, tens of millions more people are being pushed toward acute hunger across some of the world's most food-insecure countries. In the run up to Climate Week, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) is calling on donors to act now, before the window to invest in anticipatory action closes. The IRC's own supply chain has already absorbed significant costs: freight on a single shipment of therapeutic milk from India to Nigeria rose 21%, while some medical supplies increased an average of 23%. Extended transit times are delaying other lifesaving nutrition commodities. This is a preview of what's coming as conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea ports and puts pressure on the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb between Yemen and Djibouti. The UN World Food Programme estimates El Niño alone could push 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, bringing the global total to 274 million people across 45 countries. At the same time, funding for humanitarian food and nutrition assistance has fallen nearly 60% since 2022, while funding for proven food security monitoring tools is uncertain. Now, El Niño-induced flooding, drought and disease will leave already struggling families with nothing left to protect them from going hungry. "With every minute we wait to invest, more lives are put on the line," said Bob Kitchen, Vice President of Emergencies at the IRC. "Food, fuel and fertilizer are getting harder and more expensive to move, right when the world's poorest countries can least afford it. Families already spending the majority of their income on food will be pushed further into poverty. If we invest now to support livelihoods and ease economic pressure, we can mitigate the worst of it." The Strait of Hormuz disruption is already reshaping food supply: the chokepoint carries 40% of the world's urea, and fertilizer shortages tied to it are already impacting farmers in East Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East, squeezing supply as the next planting cycle begins. Due to escalating attacks in the Black Sea, shipments were already down more than 40% year-on-year in late July, and Ukraine has decreased its 2026-27 export forecast after strikes halted shipments from Odesa. Ukraine's ammonium nitrate exports, a critical fertilizer once bound for East Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, have stopped entirely. A third chokepoint is now under direct pressure. In mid-September, Ansar Allah forces gained direct control of the Yemeni side of Bab el-Mandeb. Traffic through the strait is already down roughly 15%, and many operators are routing around the Cape of Good Hope, adding at least two weeks to each shipment. Nitrogen fertilizer must be applied at planting time. Farmers who cannot secure or afford it now will see their yield potential capped before they even plant the seeds in the ground. These shortages, plus rising fuel and shipping costs, will further reduce harvests, increase costs of production, and push more people into hunger. IRC's own analysis points to two immediate hotspots. In Somalia, El Niño combined with a newly confirmed positive Indian Ocean Dipole significantly raises the risk of catastrophic flooding. IRC modelling shows up to 2.6 million people could be at immediate risk in a worst-case scenario. This risk is already materializing, with heavy rains in Mogadishu causing flooding in parts of the city and damaging an IRC-supported health center. In Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, forecasted poor rains are likely to drive a rapid deterioration in food security, with northeastern El Salvador alone facing an additional 700,000 people in need of immediate emergency response. These shocks do not land in a vacuum: where conflict is already present, climate and supply disruption translate directly into hunger. Countries facing all three, including Sudan and Somalia, face the highest risk of famine with far less support: Yemen, DRC, Somalia, Afghanistan and South Sudan absorbed 44% of the global reduction in food security funding—nearly $2 billion—and those same five countries saw a combined six million more people enter acute food insecurity in 2025. The IRC is calling on donors to urgently fund anticipatory action and emergency response to reach at-risk communities, especially in Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Somalia and Kenya, where forecasts already signal imminent flooding or drought, alongside sustained funding for early-warning systems that make that action possible. Donors should direct a minimum of 5% of humanitarian budgets to anticipatory action. Current forecasts indicate widespread drought across Southern Africa early next year. More funding must be allocated to these regions now to fuel anticipatory action and emergency response. Safe passage guarantees for food, fuel and fertilizer shipments are urgently needed to keep food and fuel moving. Donors should scale up humanitarian funding for emergency food and nutrition programs where they are urgently needed: in Sudan, Gaza, South Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, and Haiti. In response to increased climate risk, the IRC’s anticipatory action model already delivers cash to at-risk families ahead of disaster, helping them buy food, pay for water, and protect their homes, crops, and livestock. Ahead of El Niño's peak, the IRC is scaling up our response combining local knowledge with scientific forecasting to protect lives and livelihoods before disaster strikes. The approach has already proven effective: a 2025 IRC anticipatory action program in Afghanistan's Badghis province ahead of drought resulted in beneficiaries being nearly three times less likely to take on new debt or rely on other negative coping strategies. Given uncertainty over long-term funding for early-warning systems, the IRC is scaling up support for national early warning systems. Funding now would allow the IRC and partners to rapidly scale up planned anticipatory action responses to reach additional families at risk of drought in Guatemala and El Salvador, and flooding in Somalia and Kenya with cash, clean water and early warnings before the worst hits, thereby saving lives, preserving resources, and reducing suffering.