Kenya: Super El Niño threatens to push eight million children into acute hunger across East and Southern Africa

NAIROBI, 22 September 2026 – About 8 million children across East and Southern Africa could face acute hunger by early 2027, a rise of 30%, as one of the strongest El Nino weather events in recent years fuels a growing food crisis, according to new analysis by Save the Children. Analysis of recent data from global hunger monitor, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), found that the number of people facing crisis levels of hunger or worse (IPC Phase 3+) in six countries is expected to surge from 12.6 million people to 16.4 million by March 2027 driven in part by the impacts of the looming “Super” El Niño. Currently six million children in those six countries are experiencing severe food shortages [1] but this is set to rise to eight million in the next few months unless urgent action is taken, Save the Children said. The agency’s analysis only covered countries with recent IPC reports where El Niño is projected to have devastating impacts including Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Uganda and Kenya. New hunger data is due out shortly for Somalia which has already been flagged for being at risk of El Nino-related floods. Uganda is projected to have the highest absolute number of people facing acute food insecurity in coming months, with 4.4 million people expected to be in crisis or worse levels of hunger by early 2027 – a 22% increase on previous figures. The situation is particularly bad in the Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda which has seen an increase of more than 40% in the number of people facing crisis or emergency food insecurity. Zambia is forecast to experience the sharpest deterioration, with the number of people facing crisis-level hunger rising by 80% to over 1.2 million people, while Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi are expected to see increases of 75%, 55% and 35% respectively. While food security is expected to improve in Kenya overall by the start of 2027, having already deteriorated this year, the situation among refugees in the country is expected to deteriorate due to El Niño-related flooding. In Mozambique, the forecast comes as many communities in the central provinces are still recovering from severe flooding earlier this year, while conflict driven- displacement in Cabo Delgado continues to put pressure on food, water and health services. In Madagascar, about 502,000 children aged under 5 - or one in 10- are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition between May 2026 and April 2027. This includes about 78,000 children expected to have severe acute malnutrition, the most deadly form of malnutrition requiring urgent medical treatment [2]. The worsening food crisis across much of the region comes as a result of one of the strongest El Niño weather events in recent years, coupled with record-breaking global temperatures, a deadly combination that will cause dangerous droughts, crop failures and livestock losses across parts of Southern Africa. At the same time, the El Niño phenomenon will cause devastating floods in parts of East Africa, pushing already vulnerable families deeper into crisis. Save the Children said El Niño is unfolding against a backdrop of conflict, hunger, displacement, economic instability and humanitarian funding cuts. Without early action, the aid agency said, climate shocks are likely to compound existing vulnerabilities and deepen humanitarian needs, particularly for children and their families. Yvonne Arunga, Regional Director for Save the Children in East and Southern Africa, said: "Hunger is not just about empty stomachs. Children who do not have enough nutritious food are more likely to become malnourished, fall ill, miss school and face increased risks of exploitation and abuse. The longer families go without support, the harder it becomes for children to recover. “When families' livelihoods are destroyed by floods or drought, children may face greater risks of child labour, trafficking, neglect, violence, forced early marriage, and other forms of exploitation. “We know El Niño is coming. We know which children are most at risk. And we know that anticipatory action works. Governments must turn early warnings into early action to protect essential services like schools, hospitals, water and social protection systems, before the crisis hits. The international community and donors must invest now, before droughts, floods and food crises escalate. Every dollar spent helping communities prepare and act early can save lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce the need for much larger humanitarian responses later.” Save the Children has invested significantly in anticipatory action, taking practical action ahead of forecasted shocks to reduce impacts on children and communities. Across the region, Save the Children is helping families prepare for floods, storms and droughts such as through early warning information targeted at children, evacuation planning, strengthening of community preparedness, and anticipatory cash assistance to allow families to prepare for disasters. Save the Children is also reinforcing health facilities, schools and water systems so they can better withstand floods, droughts and other climate-related shocks. Ends. Notes to Editors: [1] Save the Children compared the most recent Acute Food Insecurity analyses (IPC Phase 3+) from six countries in East and Southern Africa; the countries were selected due to having IPC analyses with a validity period as of September 2026 and a projection that looks ahead into the end of 2026/ the first quarter of 2027 when the effects of El Niño are expected to peak. In all cases, Save the Children compared the number of people currently facing IPC3+, with the projected figure for early 2027 within the same analysis report. The number of children in IPC3+ for each country was estimated by looking at the total number of people facing IPC3+ levels of food insecurity, and applying the national share of children in the population according to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 revision. [2] According to data from IPC - Integrated Food Security Phase Classification