Risk of famine persists in southern Somalia through January 2027

Attachments • Download Report (PDF | 460.54 KB) Key Messages • FEWS NET continues to assess a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in southern Somalia from October 2026 through January 2027. Under the most likely scenario, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), are expected to persist in the Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones*,* and Southern Agropastoral areas of Hiiraan; most riverine areas; and several IDP settlements, driven by consecutive below-average to failed seasons. If extreme, widespread flooding occurs during the upcoming October-December deyr season, extensive agricultural losses and prolonged isolation from markets and lifesaving services would likely lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5). • Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected through January in portions of Northern Inland, Coastal Deeh, and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones, with some households remaining in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is anticipated in parts ofthe Hawd Pastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones where relatively higher livestock births and milk production are expected. Elsewhere, limited small ruminant births, limited milk production for consumption and sales income, high indebtedness, and atypically low livestock holdings will continue to constrain household incomes. Worsening insecurity along major shipping corridors and rising shipping, fuel, and import costs will further increase already high food prices. Many households will likely be forced to sell breeding animals amid overstretched social support systems to try and mitigate their food consumption deficits. • In highly cropping-dependent areas of Bay, Bakool, and Hiiraan, and the Juba and Shabelle riverine zones, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to largely expand through January, with pockets of poor households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), driven by localized near-failed gu harvests, sorghum and cash crop losses following prolonged xagaa showers, below-normal land preparation and agricultural labor, flood-related displacement, and rising food prices. Between October and January, only limited improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected in livestock-dependent agropastoral areas. Elevated debt burdens, unsustainably low herd sizes, constrained milk access, and persistently high food prices will continue to constrain food access, forcing many poor households to resort to distress livestock sales and increased reliance on kinship support. • Major IDP settlements across south/central Somalia are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between October and January, with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), driven by repeated displacements from flooding and conflict, extremely limited income-earning opportunities, and high food prices. Many displaced households have little remaining coping capacity and will be unable to mitigate their food consumption deficits, with many forced to resort to begging or other extreme measures. At the same time, humanitarian food assistance is expected to decline substantially from previous months, averaging around 125,000 people per month between September and November, with most beneficiaries in Lower Juba, Gedo, Hiiraan, Bari, and Sanaag regions. • The 2026 gu main and off-season harvests have now concluded across southern Somalia, and preparation for deyr cropping is underway. Recent crop production estimates produced by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and partners indicate that overall 2026 main and off-season gu crop production is estimated to be 18 percent higher than the 2025 gu and 32 percent above the long-term gu average, despite substantial deficits in several major production basins. Better-than-anticipated xagaa rainfall and river levels supported late-planted crops and irrigation opportunities. However, xagaa rains reportedly disrupted drying, threshing, and transport in some areas, worsening crop quality and increasing post-harvest losses, particularly for sesame. Land preparation and dry planting have reportedly begun in most agropastoral areas; however, they have not yet started in most riverine areas. Field reports from riverine areas of Hiiraan indicate most farmers have deliberately delayed planting out of fear of severe flooding, especially early in the season. • Prices largely remain above historical averages in many areas, largely reflecting below-normal carryover stocks following consecutive poor seasons and localized gu 2026 production deficits. Market supplies are comparatively better in southern areas following the gu harvest, while availability remains constrained in northern and central pastoral markets where dependence on interregional trade is higher. Increased cereal imports from Ethiopia have also improved supplies. In August, the price of white maize in Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle Region, decreased nearly 12 percent from the previous month, but was 88 and 56 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, respectively. The price of red sorghum in Baidoa, Bay Region, decreased 19 percent from the previous month but remained 68 and 43 percent higher than last year and the five-year average. In central and northeastern pastoral markets, maize and sorghum are scarce, and prices are significantly higher than last year and the average. • High transport costs and increased international shipping costs linked to Red Sea insecurity and increasing piracy off the coast of Somalia are compounding existing inflationary pressures. Diesel prices in Mogadishu increased by 34 percent between July and August, rising 55 and 53 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, respectively. Additional price increases are expected following the Houthis’ capture of key coastal areas and islands around the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb in mid-September, which is likely to increase perceived maritime risk and raise already elevated insurance and shipping costs in the short to medium term. These higher transport costs will gradually affect households in the coming months through higher food prices. However, traders' existing adaptations to past trade disruptions and substantial engagement in informal, uninsured maritime trade are expected to partially mitigate price impacts.