Who is at high risk from climate hazards? A new map to explore exposure and vulnerability

In June 2026, the World Bank Group introduced a new Scorecard indicator that counts the people most at risk from climate hazards. Our recent research shows that, under current climate conditions, more than half of the world's population — over 4.5 billion people — are likely to face at least one major flood, drought, heatwave, or cyclone within their lifetime. Combining these exposure estimates with household vulnerability data, we estimate that about 1.2 billion people in countries with available data are at high risk, rising to 1.5 billion—nearly one in five people—when extrapolated to the global population. What does this mean? It means that these people live in harm's way and would struggle to recover because they are poor, lack basic services, or have no safety net to fall back on. Our updated People at Risk from Climate-Related Hazards (PARCH) map, available through the World Bank Group’s Geospatial Poverty Portal on the Poverty and Inequality Platform, shows both sides of that picture: where people are exposed to climate hazards, and where they lack the resources and services that help them cope. Users can explore climate hazard exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability separately, or see where the two overlap. The earlier post gave the global picture. The new page lets users go further: zoom in on a country, choose which hazards and dimension of vulnerability to count, and see how the numbers have changed over time. What you can do with the map The map offers an interactive way to explore where climate hazards and socioeconomic vulnerabilities overlap. It helps identify areas where people face both exposure to hazards and challenges such as poverty or limited access to basic services, highlighting where interventions such as cash transfers, resilient infrastructure, or early warning systems may be most needed. Users can explore different hazards and vulnerability measures, compare patterns across locations, and examine how the results change with different selections. The map also illustrates why exposure to a hazard does not necessarily mean being at risk. It provides estimates of how many people are exposed to specific hazards and how many of them also experience poverty or gaps in basic services. Two questions: who is exposed, and who is vulnerable? The map keeps two questions apart. The first is who is exposed: people living where a severe flood, drought, heatwave, or tropical cyclone is likely enough, and strong enough, to do real harm. For example, the population living in areas where there is at least a 1 percent chance that floods exceed 0.5 meters each year, or a tropical cyclone of at least Category 2 strength. This way, data users can focus on places where dangerous hazards occur more frequently by adjusting the frequency threshold. The second is who is vulnerable: people who lack something that helps them cope or recover from exposure to climate hazards. The map looks at seven areas, asking, for example, whether a household lives below the international poverty line of US$3.00 a day, whether anyone in it has completed primary school, and whether it has access to a bank or mobile money account, electricity, and safe drinking water. These thresholds are deliberately set at basic minimum levels, in the same spirit as the extreme poverty line, to pick out the people least able to recover from a shock. People who are both exposed and vulnerable are counted as at risk. Users can choose ‘only hazards’ and the map will show the share of people exposed; choose only ‘areas of hardship’ and it will show the share who are vulnerable; or choose both and it will expose the share at risk. Choose what counts Users can choose which hazards and areas of hardship to focus on, as well as how to combine them. Using OR counts people affected by ANY of the selected categories — for example, exposure to floods or heatwaves — while using AND counts only people affected by ALL selected categories, such as exposure to floods, droughts, and heatwaves together. As users make their selections, the page explains in plain language exactly who is being counted. The World Bank Group’s Scorecard Vision indicator uses the broadest setting: it counts people exposed to ANY hazard AND vulnerable in ANY area. What the map reveals Risk looks very different from one region to the next. Exposure is highest in South and East Asia, but vulnerability there is lower, thanks to broader access to social protection and financial services among the factors that can reduce vulnerability. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the picture flips: 90% of people are highly vulnerable on at least one dimension, so almost everyone who is exposed is also at risk. Hazards differ, too. Globally, more people are exposed to heatwaves than to any other hazard, while most rural people face agricultural drought, often while vulnerable in more than one way. The map lets users check these patterns for any country and see which hazards and hardships drive the numbers there. Looking back in time Step forward and back between years to see how things have changed. Progress since 2010 has been mixed. The share of people at high risk fell from about one in three to one in five, driven largely by declining socioeconomic vulnerability, while exposure to climate hazards remained broadly similar as a share of the population. Yet the number of people exposed grew by 461 million, reflecting in part population growth. Keep in mind that the map counts people living directly in a hazard's path, not those affected indirectly. Countries without recent household survey data are not included, and the latest numbers trail the present by a few years. These findings are only part of the story. The forthcoming Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report (3PR) will provide a deeper look at the scale and distribution of climate risks, and how exposure and vulnerability intersect to shape the challenges facing people around the world. More information • Explore the People at Risk from Climate-Related Hazards (PARCH) map at [URL]. • Read Who is most at risk? A global vision indicator to measure climate vulnerability for the global findings and what they mean for policy. • See the indicator on the World Bank Group Scorecard. • The WBG Scorecard methods note explains how people at high risk are counted, step by step. • The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper sets out the research behind the method. • An earlier Data Blog post looks at which regions are most at risk and how that compares with their greenhouse gas emissions. • How to Cite the PARCH Map: World Bank. (2026). People at Risk from Climate-Related Hazards (PARCH) [Data or Interactive map]. Poverty and Inequality Platform, World Bank. Retrieved [Month Day, Year], from https://pip.worldbank.org/map/climate-risk We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the UK Government through the Data and Evidence for Tackling Extreme Poverty (DEEP) Research Program. The views expressed are our own and not those of the World Bank Group.