Over 800,000 people at risk of displacement as floods threaten Somalia

Geneva/Mogadishu, 21 October 2026 – Nearly 874,000 people could be forced from their homes in Somalia over the next three months, due to flooding, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned, as rising rivers and heavy rainfall threaten communities already struggling with drought and repeated displacement. “We are looking at the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes in just a matter of weeks. Many of these families have already been displaced before and have very little left to fall back on,” said Manuel Marques Pereira, IOM Somalia Chief of Mission. “There is still time to reduce the impact, but that window is closing. We urgently need funding to help people protect their homes and livelihoods, reach safer ground where necessary, and avoid another cycle of displacement.” New projections by IOM and the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) estimate that 874,319 people could be displaced between October and December, with flooding accounting for 92 per cent of the projected displacement. The warning comes as Somalia enters a rainy season forecast to bring above-normal rainfall amid strengthening El Niño conditions. Despite the growing threat, IOM has secured only about 14.4 per cent of the required USD 16.62 million needed to prepare for and respond to El Niño-related flooding. The funding is intended to support more than 517,000 people in flood-prone communities across Somalia. Signs of flooding are already emerging. In Dollow, the Jubba River is approaching flood levels, while the Shabelle River is rising towards the top of its banks in Jowhar. Heavy rainfall in Baidoa has already damaged homes and forced families to flee several neighbourhoods. Beletweyne and Gaalkacyo are among the areas facing the greatest threat, with approximately 229,000 and 82,000 people respectively at risk of displacement. Families living in overcrowded displacement sites are particularly vulnerable, with assessments identifying inadequate access to safe water and sanitation, raising concerns about disease outbreaks if flooding intensifies. Beyond the immediate threat to homes, rising floodwaters could destroy crops, disrupt livelihoods, contaminate water sources and cut off access to healthcare and other essential services, deepening humanitarian needs in communities already affected by successive climate shocks. IOM is working with Somali authorities and local communities to strengthen early warning systems, identify safer evacuation routes and prepare emergency assistance. However, funding shortages are limiting efforts to establish safe relocation areas and provide essential shelter, clean water, sanitation and healthcare. IOM is calling for urgent international support to scale up preparedness and early action before rising floodwaters force more families from their homes. For more information, please contact IOM Media Center