IDMC global disaster displacement risk modelling

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

Published

27 Oct 2026

Organization: Internal Displacement Monitoring CentreClosing date: 12 Nov 2026IDMC’s disaster displacement risk work complements its monitoring of past and current displacement by providing evidence on where and at what scale displacement may occur in the future. The Global Disaster Displacement Risk Model provides probabilistic estimates of displacement risk associated with different hazards and under current and future climate conditions.Through its collaboration with UNU-EHS and other technical partners, IDMC has progressively strengthened the model, including, through improvements to hazard and exposure data, vulnerability modelling, geographic resolution and the range of hazards considered. The existing collaboration has also supported the development of new approaches, including impact forecasting.The next phase provides an opportunity to consolidate these advances. IDMC has recently updated its historical displacement data, including improvements to the geographic specificity of displacement information. This provides a stronger empirical basis for updating and validating the model and strengthening national and subnational risk estimates.At the same time, methodological work undertaken during the current phase has identified promising areas for further development, including multi-hazard risk modelling and impact forecasting. The impact-forecasting proof of concept, for example, has been tested through hindcasts of 217 historical tropical cyclone events and demonstrated through a live application to Hurricane Melissa. Further testing against observed displacement data and integration of recent improvements to the underlying risk model have been identified as important next steps.IDMC and NRC seek an agency or consortium to deliver the phased technical work below under a framework agreement. The provider will update and validate the risk estimates, develop a defensible multi-hazard framework, test impact forecasting, document methods and transfer reproducible outputs to IDMC.For more details on the scope of work, expected deliverables, and requirements, please refer to the Terms of Reference (ToR), in the attachment.For more details on the eligibility, please refer to the Programmes Eligibility (ECPE), in the attachment.For more details on the invitation to bid, please refer to the Invitation to Bid (ITB), in the attachment.How to applyHow to applyQualified services provides are invited to submit a complete application on or before 23:59 (CET) Tuesday 12 November 2026, through the email address ch.gvatenders@nrc.no. The bid application should be titled ‘IDMC GLOBAL DISASTER DISPLACEMENT RISK MODELLING’ and include the following information:A technical proposal covering the approach to each work package, validation, timetable and handover;A financial proposal with a fixed price per work package, daily rates by role, and separate prices for the initial and conditional phases;Profiles or CVs of the proposed team, including each partner’s role if bidding as a consortium;2 examples of comparable work completed in the past five years;At least 3 references that can be contacted to verify the quality of services.Proof of status or registration as a company, consultant or sole trader in country of residence.Any request for clarification must be received by NRC in writing at least 5 working days before the deadline for submission of tenders. Questions regarding the assignment, can be addressed to Thannaletchimy Housset (thannaletchimy.housset@idmc.ch).Please note: All service providers/consultants working with NRC should maintain high standards on ethical issues, respect and apply basic human and social rights, ensure non-exploitation of child labour, and give fair working conditions to their staff. NRC reserves the right to reject quotations provided by suppliers not meeting these standards. Any organization doing business with NRC will be screened on anti-corruption due diligence before NRC confirms a contract. Anti-money laundering, anti-bribery, anti-corruption and anti-terrorism legislation and donor regulations require NRC to screen contractors against various international lists to ensure due diligence. Submission of the quotation constitutes acceptance of these screening practices.NRC reserves the right to accept or reject the whole or part of your offer based on the information provided. Incomplete offers which do not comply with our conditions will not be considered.We look forward to receiving your application!Please find the full Terms of Reference and application process here:EC_Programmes_Eligibility_2027Invitation to BidToR Risk Modeling